South Asia could experience both severe flooding and drought this monsoon season despite forecasts of below-average rainfall, according to climate experts from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).

The regional forecast suggests overall monsoon rainfall may remain below normal, but experts caution that prolonged dry spells interrupted by short bursts of intense rain could significantly increase the risk of flash floods and landslides.

The Hindu Kush-Himalayan region, which stretches from Afghanistan to Myanmar and supplies water to 10 major Asian river systems, is entering the season with lower snow reserves than usual. Researchers say reduced snow cover has weakened the region’s natural water storage, potentially limiting the recharge of rivers, springs, and groundwater during the months ahead.

Scientists also warned that rising temperatures are accelerating glacier melt, adding to river flows during heavy rainfall events and increasing flood risks. Rapid urbanization and construction in flood-prone areas are further amplifying the impact of extreme weather.

The summer monsoon provides around 70 to 80 percent of South Asia’s annual rainfall and is essential for agriculture, livelihoods, and food security across a region home to nearly two billion people.

ICIMOD experts stressed that governments should strengthen integrated early warning systems and disaster preparedness, saying flood and drought risks are increasingly occurring together and require coordinated planning rather than separate responses.