The government is expected to raise the price of petrol by Rs. 4.75 per litre in the upcoming fortnightly review, while the price of high-speed diesel is likely to remain largely unchanged, subject to the government not imposing any additional petroleum levy.
Industry estimates suggest petrol will become more expensive in the next pricing cycle, whereas high-speed diesel may register only a marginal increase if there are no foreign exchange adjustments before the final notification.
Petrol’s ex-refinery price is projected to rise from Rs. 270.03 per litre to Rs. 274.77 per litre, mainly due to an increase in the international Free on Board price from $139.03 per barrel to $143.01 per barrel during the review period.
Officials said lower premiums and incidental costs provided some cushion, but the relief was not enough to offset the impact of higher international prices. The withdrawal of a previous Pakistan State Oil adjustment of Rs. 1.41 per litre also contributed to the expected increase.
In contrast, the ex-refinery price of high-speed diesel is estimated to edge up by only Rs. 0.20 per litre, from Rs. 334.74 to Rs. 334.93. Although the international Free on Board price for diesel rose sharply from $160.41 per barrel to $172.99 per barrel, the increase was mostly neutralised by a substantial reduction in customs duty and incidental costs.
According to industry calculations, customs duty declined by more than Rs. 20 per litre, which helped keep diesel prices broadly stable despite the rise in international rates.
The exchange rate remained largely steady during the review period at around Rs. 278.9 per US dollar, limiting its effect on domestic fuel prices.
Industry officials said petrol consumers were likely to bear the immediate impact of higher global gasoline prices, while diesel users could benefit from policy adjustments that had softened the effect of international market volatility.
They added that the final consumer prices would depend on the government’s decision regarding taxes, levies and any last-minute exchange rate changes before the official announcement.
