The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged at 11.5% at its September 2026 monetary policy meeting, as stronger external and fiscal positions offset rising inflation and oil prices.

Pakistan’s current account deficit fell 38% year-on-year to $328 million in July, while remittances rose 13% to $3.6 billion. The fiscal deficit also narrowed to 2.6% of GDP in FY26, with the primary surplus reaching 2.9%.

Inflation remains a concern. Average CPI inflation rose to 10.18% in the first two months of FY27, compared with 3.56% a year earlier. However, the SBP is expected to wait for signs of sustained inflation before changing the policy rate.

Large-scale manufacturing grew around 5% in FY26, supporting economic activity.

An AHL survey showed 87.5% of respondents expect no change in the policy rate, while 12.5% expect a 50-basis-point increase.