Global energy prices are expected to rise 24 percent in 2026, reaching their highest level since 2022, as conflict in the Middle East disrupts supply chains and rattles commodity markets, according to a World Bank assessment.
The report said overall commodity prices are projected to increase 16 percent this year, driven by gains in energy, fertilizer and metals. Oil has been among the hardest-hit segments, with Brent crude trading more than 50 percent higher in mid-April compared with the start of the year.
The World Bank expects Brent crude to average about $86 per barrel in 2026, compared with $69 per barrel in 2025. It linked the increase to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route through which about 35 percent of global seaborne crude oil trade passes.
According to the report, the conflict has caused an estimated reduction of around 10 million barrels per day in global oil supply, making it one of the largest supply shocks on record.
Fertilizer prices are also expected to climb sharply, rising 31 percent overall, including a 60 percent jump in urea prices. The World Bank warned that higher fertilizer costs could hurt agricultural output and push as many as 45 million more people into food insecurity.
Prices of major industrial metals, including aluminum, copper and tin, are also forecast to rise to record levels, supported by strong demand from electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure and data centers.
Precious metals are projected to increase 42 percent as investors seek safer assets amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
The World Bank said the broad rise in commodity prices is likely to intensify inflationary pressures and weigh on economic growth, particularly in developing economies. Inflation in those countries is now expected to reach 5.1 percent in 2026, above earlier estimates, while economic growth is projected to slow to 3.6 percent.
The report warned that if the Middle East conflict escalates further, oil prices could climb as high as $115 per barrel, adding to inflation risks and deepening pressure on already fragile economies.
