Pakistan’s cotton stocks have reportedly dropped below 10,000 bales ahead of the new ginning season, sparking fears of a serious supply crunch that could force some textile mills to partially suspend operations due to raw material shortages.
Industry officials said it may be the first time in the country’s history that cotton inventories have fallen to such critically low levels before the arrival of the new crop. The situation has added to the pressure on textile manufacturers already grappling with high production costs and disruptions in import channels.
The shortage deepened after the temporary closure of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border blocked the arrival of nearly 500,000 cotton bales from Afghanistan. At the same time, the regional conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran disrupted trade routes and affected cotton imports, further tightening supplies for local mills.
As the supply situation worsened, cotton prices rose sharply over the past week. Market rates climbed to around Rs. 22,000 per maund, while deferred payment deals were reportedly being struck at up to Rs. 23,500 per maund.
The new cotton ginning season is expected to begin immediately after Eid ul Azha, with large-scale arrivals of the fresh crop likely to start in the third week of June. Industry participants expect the incoming crop to provide some temporary relief to spinning and textile mills through improved availability in the market.
Cotton Ginners Forum Chairman Ihsan ul Haq has urged the government to take emergency measures to increase domestic cotton production and reduce reliance on imports.
He called for a complete ban on sugarcane cultivation in designated cotton-growing zones, arguing that such a step could help Pakistan save billions of dollars spent on cotton and edible oil imports.
He also cited India’s recent policy response to rising cotton imports caused by strong yarn exports to China. According to him, India has allocated more than Rs. 56 billion for a cotton production enhancement programme from 2026-27 to 2030-31, focusing on climate-resilient and high-yield seed varieties as well as the modernization of more than 2,000 ginning and processing factories.
Meanwhile, cotton sowing is underway in most growing areas of Pakistan, but farmers are facing mounting input costs. DAP fertilizer prices have climbed to around Rs. 16,000 per bag, while urea prices have reached nearly Rs. 4,500 per bag.
Industry experts warned that lower fertilizer usage due to rising costs could reduce cotton yields and force the country to increase imports again in the coming months.
