The National Accounts Committee (NAC) reported that Pakistan’s GDP grew 4.0 percent year-on-year in 3QFY26, keeping 9MFY26 average growth at 4.0 percent, which remains within the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) projected range of 3.75 percent to 4.75 percent.
On a full-year basis, 9MFY26 performance is tracking at the upper end of the FY26 growth forecast range of 3.5 percent to 4.0 percent. However, the outlook is expected to stay within this band as economic activity may moderate in 4Q due to higher global oil prices and domestic administrative measures, including early market closures, according to Topline Securities.
The committee also revised earlier quarterly figures upward, lifting 1QFY26 GDP growth by 29 basis points to 3.92 percent and 2QFY26 by 16 basis points to 4.05 percent. The latest estimates are broadly aligned with the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) provisional FY26 growth projection of 3.7 percent.
For FY25, GDP growth was also revised slightly higher to 3.18 percent from 3.06 percent.
Sector-wise, agriculture grew 3.01 percent in 3QFY26, the strongest in seven quarters, compared to 2.4 percent in the same period last year. Growth was supported by livestock at 3.7 percent, other crops at 2.27 percent, forestry at 1.62 percent, and important crops at 1.1 percent. Average agriculture growth for 9MFY26 stands at 2.9 percent, while the FY26 target is maintained at 3.0 percent, with crops projected at 2.1 percent, livestock at 3.5 percent, and forestry at 3.0 percent.
The industrial sector expanded 4.65 percent in 3QFY26 versus just 0.3 percent a year earlier, driven mainly by a 9.53 percent rise in Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM). Construction posted marginal growth of 0.5 percent, reflecting a high base effect. For 9MFY26, industrial growth averages 6.4 percent compared to only 0.4 percent last year, while the FY26 forecast remains at 6.8 percent, supported by a low base in utilities and strong manufacturing output.
The services sector grew 4.18 percent, led by 8.88 percent growth in public administration and social security and 9.78 percent growth in information and communication. Average services growth stands at 3.7 percent for 9MFY26 compared to 2.8 percent last year, with the FY26 assumption maintained at 3.0 percent.
