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Pakistan’s major reservoirs have collectively swelled to 9.466 million acre-feet (MAF), filling roughly 72 percent of the country’s total storage capacity, with the mighty Tarbela Dam inching toward full capacity just as the peak irrigation season gets underway.

Fresh water data released on Sunday shows the Indus River System is currently receiving 401,600 cusecs of inflows, while regulated outflows are being held at 304,700 cusecs, a sign that water managers are striking a careful balance between storage and supply.

Tarbela remains the star performer. The dam is holding 5.063 MAF, or 90.72 percent of its 5.58 MAF capacity, fed by 219,700 cusecs of inflows against releases of 162,000 cusecs. Glacier melt and monsoon rains across the upper Indus basin are doing the heavy lifting. Chashma Barrage is also sitting pretty at 91.64 percent of capacity, with 0.285 MAF in storage.

Mangla Dam, however, tells a different story. The reservoir is languishing at just 56.74 percent of capacity, a consequence of disappointingly weak rainfall over the Jhelum catchment, which has limited inflows to a modest 46,200 cusecs. In response, water managers have slashed releases to a trickle — just 7,000 cusecs — in a bid to conserve whatever they can.

Across the irrigation network, authorities are diverting 354,600 cusecs to sustain Kharif crops, including cotton, rice, and sugarcane. Sindh is drawing the largest share at 195,000 cusecs, followed by Punjab at 145,000 cusecs, Balochistan at 12,000 cusecs, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa at 2,500 cusecs.

Downstream of Kotri Barrage, some 0.532 MAF of water has been released into the Arabian Sea since the start of the Kharif season, not as waste, but as a deliberate measure to check seawater intrusion and protect the fragile Sindh delta ecosystem.

With monsoon activity expected to continue through mid-August, water authorities are keeping a close watch on the skies. A few good spells over the Jhelum basin could make all the difference for Mangla, giving it a much-needed boost before the Rabi sowing season rolls around.

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