The global oil market is expected to remain under intense pressure for an extended period, even if a ceasefire or peace agreement is reached, as deep supply disruptions and ongoing logistical bottlenecks continue to strain global inventories, according to a new report by HFI Research.
In its latest assessment, the energy-focused research firm says the market has already passed a critical “breaking point,” with an estimated 11 to 13 million barrels per day of disrupted supply. This shortfall, it notes, is already being reflected through falling crude stockpiles, declining refined product inventories, and in some cases, reduced demand.
HFI Research, an investment research firm known for its contrarian outlook on oil and gas markets, provides detailed analysis on global supply-demand trends for energy investors.
The report argues that even an immediate end to conflict would not lead to a rapid recovery in the oil market due to physical and logistical constraints. Roughly 160 million barrels of crude remain in floating storage, requiring 30 to 40 days to reach ports, followed by an additional 20 days needed for tanker turnaround. This delay significantly slows the normalization of global supply flows.
In addition, around 70 very large crude carriers are currently tied up in long-haul US export routes to Asia, with voyage cycles extending up to three months before vessels can return to Middle East trade routes. As a result, meaningful restoration of tanker movement through key chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely for months, even if conditions improve.
The report further highlights that global refinery outages now exceed 5 million barrels per day, including approximately 3 million barrels per day in the Middle East. This has tightened supply further, even as end-user demand remains steady, pushing global onshore inventories into sharper decline.
HFI Research estimates that cumulative storage drawdowns linked to the disruption could reach 1.2 billion barrels by the end of April, rising to 1.59 billion barrels by the end of May and nearly 1.98 billion barrels by the end of June.
In the United States, commercial crude inventories are projected to fall below 400 million barrels and move toward operational minimum thresholds of 370 to 380 million barrels by late July, indicating tightening conditions in the world’s key buffer market.
The firm also noted that even reopening the Strait of Hormuz without restrictions would not immediately restore balance, as existing supply chain delays and tanker backlogs would continue to pressure the system. It warned that only significant demand destruction—similar to levels seen during the pandemic—or direct policy actions such as export restrictions could stabilize the market under current conditions.
