Pakistan’s interbank borrowing benchmark moved lower across most maturities on June 15, even after the State Bank of Pakistan maintained its policy rate, indicating that market sentiment is shifting toward expectations of easing inflation.

According to data from Arif Habib Ltd, short-term rates were largely stable while medium- and long-term tenors recorded declines across the curve.

The one-week KIBOR stayed unchanged at 11.93%, and the two-week tenor remained at 11.97%. Beyond the short end, rates edged down: the one-month fell to 12.08%, the three-month to 12.21%, the six-month to 12.36%, the nine-month to 12.74%, and the one-year tenor to 12.83%.

The movement suggests that although the central bank has kept its stance unchanged, money markets are increasingly factoring in a softer inflation trajectory, supported by expectations of easing global commodity pressures, particularly in energy markets.

Despite the recent declines, KIBOR levels remain higher compared to end-June 2025, showing that overall financial conditions are still tighter on a year-on-year basis even as short-term sentiment improves.

Compared with June 30, 2025, the one-year tenor is up by 152 basis points, while other maturities also remain elevated, indicating that the easing trend so far has only partially offset earlier tightening.

Overall, the data reflects a cautious shift in expectations: policy rates remain unchanged, but interbank pricing is gradually adjusting to the possibility of lower inflation pressures ahead.