Pakistan’s nominal per capita income is expected to cross the $2,000 mark for the first time in FY27, provided geopolitical tensions ease and global oil prices remain stable, according to new estimates released by Topline Securities.
In a note accompanying the projections, Topline Securities Chief Executive Officer Mohammad Sohail said Pakistan’s per capita GDP is expected to rise to around $2,022 in FY27, compared with an estimated $1,901 in FY26.
The forecast is based on improved external conditions, particularly a reduction in tensions linked to the Iran conflict and a moderation in global energy prices.
According to Topline’s data, Pakistan’s per capita income has staged a notable recovery over the past few years after dropping to $1,551 in FY23. It then increased to $1,680 in FY24, rose further to $1,812 in FY25, and is estimated to reach $1,901 in FY26.
Sohail said economic and political instability, coupled with rapid population growth, had limited Pakistan’s income growth over the past several decades.
He noted that India and Bangladesh crossed the $2,000 per capita income threshold around six to seven years ago, leaving Pakistan behind other regional economies.
Despite relatively modest economic growth under recent stabilization policies, Pakistan has managed to improve its per capita income from around $1,500 three years ago to nearly $1,900 at present, reflecting a gradual recovery in economic activity and broader macroeconomic stability.
