Pakistan’s petroleum import bill surged past the International Monetary Fund’s projection for fiscal year 2025-26, as a sharp escalation in global crude prices, fuelled by renewed turmoil in the Middle East — drove the country’s energy costs well beyond official estimates.
Official documents show that the oil import bill touched $16.86 billion during the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026, overshooting the IMF’s estimate of $15.28 billion by a margin of $1.58 billion. On an annual basis, petroleum imports rose 5.76 percent compared to the previous fiscal year.
The Fund has pencilled in a petroleum import bill of $16.31 billion for the current fiscal year 2026-27, though persistent volatility in international oil markets has already begun to strain that forecast.
The run-up in global crude prices has delivered a double blow to the domestic economy. Beyond inflating the national import bill, it has pushed retail petrol and high-speed diesel prices to record levels, compounding the cost-of-living burden on households and businesses across the country.
Government data confirms that elevated international crude oil prices were the primary driver behind the expansion in Pakistan’s import bill during FY26, underscoring the economy’s deep vulnerability to external energy shocks.
