Pakistan is heading into the Rabi season with an expected water shortage of around 25 percent, raising concerns for wheat production after the country already faced an estimated shortfall of more than two million tons last season.
Reservoir carryover has fallen below 9.5 million acre feet (MAF), the lowest level recorded before a Rabi season since 2021. Last year, the season began with about 13 MAF in storage, nearly 27 percent higher than the current level.
The water shortage comes as Pakistan continues to deal with a wheat supply gap. Against a production target of 29.7 million tons and consumption requirements of 31.9 million tons, wheat production last season was estimated at around 27.5 million tons. The government subsequently ordered imports of one million tons, including 750,000 tons in the first phase.
The Rabi season begins October 1 and runs through March 31, with wheat being the largest crop. Gram, lentil, tobacco, rapeseed, barley, and mustard are among the other major Rabi crops.
Water availability for the coming season is expected at around 21 to 22 MAF, including projected river flows over the next six months, against Rabi crop requirements of about 37 to 38 MAF under the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord.
Reservoir levels have weakened sharply since the end of the Kharif season. Total storage in Tarbela and Mangla peaked at 11.6 MAF on September 9 but subsequently fell below 9.5 MAF. Tarbela remained at its 5.8 MAF capacity from August 9 to September 9, while Mangla reached 5.733 MAF on September 9.
The Indus River System Authority’s technical committee is scheduled to finalize water availability estimates and recommend a distribution mechanism for the provinces. The Irsa Advisory Committee is tentatively scheduled to meet on October 5 to approve provincial water shares.
The expected shortage could also revive disputes between Sindh and Punjab over how available water should be distributed. Irsa has been using a three-tier formula during periods of shortage, combining provincial allocations under Para 2 of the 1991 accord, Para 14(a), and historical water use between 1977 and 1982.
Under the current formula, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are exempt from shortages, leaving Sindh and Punjab to absorb the shortfall. Sindh has opposed the mechanism, arguing that it bears a disproportionately large share of water shortages and that Irsa exceeded its mandate when the three-tier system was introduced in 2002.
The country has also released around 10.33 MAF of water into the sea since the Kharif season began on April 1, compared with an annual environmental requirement of about 8.2 MAF. Meanwhile, weak flows in the Jhelum River and subsequent releases have reduced Mangla’s storage, which stood at 5.12 MAF on Sunday night against its 7.277 MAF capacity.
