Pakistan’s fuel prices could remain under upward pressure in the next fiscal year as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a significant increase in petroleum levy collections as part of the country’s fiscal strategy.
In its latest review report, the IMF outlined updated economic projections showing Pakistan’s overall tax target may rise to around Rs. 15.264 trillion in the upcoming fiscal year, reflecting continued reliance on revenue expansion measures under the ongoing economic programme.
The report indicates that petroleum levy receipts — a major source of government revenue linked directly to fuel pricing — are expected to increase further. While the levy target for the current fiscal year was set at Rs. 1.468 trillion, collections are now projected to reach approximately Rs. 1.546 trillion. For the next fiscal year, petroleum development levy revenues are estimated to climb to Rs. 1.727 trillion, suggesting sustained dependence on fuel-based taxation.
Revenue projections show direct taxes contributing about Rs. 7.413 trillion, while sales tax collections could reach Rs. 4.727 trillion. The IMF estimates federal excise duty revenues at Rs. 1.043 trillion, with customs duties expected to generate roughly Rs. 1.651 trillion.
Gas surcharge collections are also forecast to increase. Against a target of Rs. 90 billion during the current fiscal year, receipts may reach Rs. 134 billion, with projections rising to around Rs. 151 billion next year.
Non-tax revenues are expected to decline despite slightly exceeding targets this year. Collections are projected at Rs. 3.702 trillion for the ongoing fiscal year but may fall to Rs. 2.768 trillion in the upcoming year.
On the expenditure side, Pakistan’s total spending is projected at approximately Rs. 26.423 trillion, with federal expenditures estimated at about Rs. 16.592 trillion. Debt servicing will remain the largest fiscal burden, with interest payments expected to reach Rs. 7.824 trillion.
Domestic debt repayments are projected at Rs. 6.652 trillion, while foreign debt servicing obligations may require around Rs. 1.107 trillion.
Defence spending for the current fiscal year is expected to remain slightly below earlier estimates at Rs. 2.564 trillion, while allocations for the next fiscal year could rise to approximately Rs. 2.665 trillion, according to IMF projections.
The IMF outlook underscores Pakistan’s continued dependence on taxation measures — particularly fuel levies — as authorities prepare the next federal budget while managing rising debt obligations and fiscal consolidation targets.
