Oil prices came under pressure as crude exports from the Gulf recovered sharply, easing some concerns over a prolonged global supply disruption.
Oil flows from Gulf countries excluding Iran recovered to around 81 percent of their pre-war levels in September, according to data from Vortexa and Kpler. Saudi Arabia led the recovery, with its crude exports rising significantly during the month.
The recovery has helped keep more crude moving despite continued security risks around the Strait of Hormuz. On several days in late September, Gulf crude flows even exceeded pre-war levels as producers used alternative routes and adjusted shipping operations.
The improvement in supply has started to weigh on oil prices. Brent crude remains around the $100 per barrel level, while WTI is trading below $90, although prices remain well above pre-war levels.
The recovery is not yet a return to normal. Vortexa data shows crude and condensate exports have recovered to about 91 percent of pre-war levels, while refined fuel exports remain much weaker at around 60 percent.
This means the pressure on diesel and other refined fuels could remain even as crude supply improves. Shipping risks in the region also continue to keep a geopolitical premium in oil prices.
For Pakistan, a sustained decline in international oil prices would be particularly important because lower crude prices could reduce pressure on domestic fuel prices and the country’s import bill.





