Pakistan’s urea sales are expected to decline 4 percent year-on-year to 581,000 tons in July 2026 as heavy monsoon rains disrupted fertilizer application in key agricultural regions, according to a report by Topline Securities.
Sales are also projected to fall 2 percent compared with June. Despite the monthly decline, cumulative urea sales during the first seven months of 2026 are estimated at 3.1 million tons, up 5 percent from the same period last year.
Topline Securities said persistent monsoon rainfall delayed fertilizer usage across major crop-growing areas. The brokerage also attributed the weaker demand to dealer pre-buying in previous months and seasonal factors that resulted in higher inventory levels.
Industry-wide urea inventories are expected to increase to 930,000 tons at the end of July, compared with 840,000 tons a month earlier. Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) is projected to hold the largest stockpile at 731,000 tons, followed by Fatima Group with 132,000 tons and Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) with 62,000 tons.
Company-wise, FFC’s July urea sales are expected to edge down 1 percent year-on-year to 269,000 tons, while EFERT’s sales are projected to decline 19 percent to 167,000 tons. Fatima Group is forecast to record the strongest growth, with sales expected to exceed 127,000 tons, more than three times higher than a year ago.
For the January-July period, FFC’s cumulative urea sales are expected to grow 20 percent, while Fatima Group’s sales are projected to surge 110 percent. EFERT’s cumulative sales, however, are expected to decline 22 percent.
Meanwhile, DAP sales are forecast to fall 13 percent year-on-year to 93,000 tons in July, although they are expected to nearly double from June levels. Cumulative DAP sales for the first seven months of 2026 are projected at 577,000 tons, up 3 percent from a year earlier, with closing inventories estimated at 243,000 tons.
Looking ahead, Topline Securities expects urea demand to remain broadly stable, supported by seasonal fertilizer application and improved farm incomes driven by higher crop prices.
