Punjab’s wheat procurement drive has fallen far behind target, raising fresh concerns over food security and the government’s ability to maintain sufficient grain reserves for the coming months.
According to procurement data available till the end of May 2026, private aggregators working for the Punjab Food Directorate have procured only around 0.16 million tonnes of wheat. The figure is far below the revised target of 0.86 million tonnes and represents only a small portion of the province’s original procurement goal of 3 million tonnes.
Market sources say Punjab needs at least 2.5 million tonnes of government-controlled wheat stocks to comfortably meet demand through April 2027, especially given the relatively modest size of the 2025-26 crop.
Industry observers note that May is usually the most crucial month for wheat procurement, as most harvesting and market arrivals take place during this period. However, despite the weak buying performance, officials have maintained that aggregators are required to supply wheat against their targets from September onward and still have time to meet their commitments.
Market participants, however, are skeptical, arguing that with the main procurement season now largely over and less than 20 percent of the revised target achieved, covering the shortfall later may be difficult.
Sources familiar with the matter said only a limited quantity of wheat has been purchased directly from farmers, while a significant portion of the stocks procured so far consists of impounded wheat. They warned that delays in building strategic reserves could leave the province exposed to supply disruptions and price volatility later in the year.
Open market wheat prices have already started to rise, while reports of tightening supplies have emerged from several areas. As the country’s largest wheat-producing province and home to more than half of Pakistan’s population, Punjab plays a key role in ensuring national food security and stabilising flour prices.
Analysts warn that low official reserves may weaken the government’s ability to intervene in the market during lean months, counter hoarding, or shield consumers from price shocks. If aggregators fail to supply the promised quantities later this year, the authorities may be left with little choice but to consider expensive emergency imports to fill the gap.
Critics say the shortfall reflects poor planning and weak execution. According to market observers, the procurement price offered by the government did not provide enough incentive for farmers to sell wheat through official channels. Although the target was later cut from 3 million tonnes to 0.86 million tonnes, even the reduced goal remains largely unmet.
Industry experts have also pointed to weak monitoring, limited enforcement, and the absence of strong penalties for non-performance by aggregators. They say the heavy reliance on private suppliers without effective oversight has exposed flaws in the procurement system.
Amid growing concern, the provincial government is reportedly preparing a province-wide crackdown on stockists and suspected hoarders to impound wheat stocks. The operation is expected to begin this week as the authorities attempt to strengthen reserves after a disappointing procurement season.
Experts warn that unless swift corrective steps are taken, Punjab could enter the next wheat supply cycle with inadequate government stocks, increasing the risk of higher flour prices and public discontent in the months ahead.
