Punjab’s wheat crop has come under pressure following an early March heatwave, which was subsequently followed by unseasonal rain and strong winds, raising concerns over lower yields at a crucial harvesting stage.

The adverse weather has affected several areas across the province, casting doubt on whether national production targets can be achieved this season. Current estimates suggest that wheat output in Punjab may decline by 7 to 8 percent, with some internal assessments warning losses could rise to as much as 10 percent. Strong winds and heavy rainfall have caused widespread lodging, where standing wheat plants are flattened, reducing both yield and grain quality.

Despite these concerns, Punjab Agriculture Secretary Iftikhar Ali Sahoo said the province is still likely to produce a bumper crop this year. No updated official output figures were shared during a recent briefing, which came days after the Agriculture Department projected wheat production at 22.5 million tons.

Farmer groups, however, expressed a more cautious outlook. Khalid Khokhar stated that the unusual weather has severely affected crop prospects, making it difficult to meet official production targets. He added that maize crops and mango orchards have also suffered losses due to the same weather conditions.

According to revised internal estimates, Punjab’s wheat production may now settle closer to 21 million tons, down from the earlier target of 22.5 million tons. Some departmental officials believe total output may not exceed 21.5 million tons, aligning more closely with concerns raised by farmer representatives.

Amid the shifting projections, the government has set a wheat procurement target of 3 million tons, with operations scheduled to begin from April 15. Punjab Agriculture Minister Syed Ashiq Hussain Kirmani said district-wise harvesting cost estimates have been finalized as authorities prepare for the official wheat buying season.