Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation slowed to 4.9 percent year-on-year (YoY) in November 2024, marking a significant decline from 7.2 percent in October 2024 and 29.2 percent in November 2023, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). This is the lowest inflation reading in 78 months (6.5 years), as noted by Topline Securities.

Urban and Rural Inflation Trends

CPI inflation in urban areas decreased to 5.2 percent YoY in November 2024, compared to 9.3 percent in October 2024 and 30.4 percent in November 2023. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, urban inflation rose by 0.5 percent in November 2024, compared to a 1.1 percent increase in October 2024 and a 4.3 percent rise in November 2023.

In rural areas, CPI inflation increased slightly to 4.3 percent YoY in November 2024, up from 4.2 percent in October 2024 but significantly lower than 27.5 percent in November 2023. On an MoM basis, rural inflation rose by 0.5 percent in November 2024, compared to a 1.5 percent increase in October 2024 and a 0.4 percent rise in November 2023.

SPI and WPI Inflation

The Sensitive Price Index (SPI) inflation dropped to 7.3 percent YoY in November 2024, down from 9.7 percent in October 2024 and 30.6 percent in November 2023. On an MoM basis, SPI inflation increased by 1.0 percent in November 2024, compared to a 0.6 percent rise in October 2024 and a 3.3 percent increase in November 2023.

Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation also saw a decline, dropping to 2.3 percent YoY in November 2024, compared to 3.9 percent in October 2024 and 26.4 percent in November 2023. On an MoM basis, WPI inflation decreased by 0.1 percent in November 2024, compared to no change in October 2024 and a 1.4 percent increase in November 2023.

Core Inflation (Non-Food, Non-Energy)

Core inflation, measured by non-food, non-energy (NFNE) items, showed mixed trends.

• Urban Core Inflation: Increased to 8.9 percent YoY in November 2024, compared to 8.6 percent in October 2024 and 18.6 percent in November 2023. On an MoM basis, it rose by 1.2 percent in November 2024, compared to a 0.6 percent increase in October 2024 and a 0.9 percent rise in November 2023.
• Rural Core Inflation: Decreased to 10.9 percent YoY in November 2024, compared to 11.7 percent in October 2024 and 25.9 percent in November 2023. On an MoM basis, it remained unchanged at 0.7 percent in November 2024, compared to a 1.4 percent increase in November 2023.

Core Inflation (Trimmed)

Core inflation measured by a 20 percent weighted trimmed mean also showed an upward trend:

• Urban Trimmed Inflation: Increased to 7.5 percent YoY in November 2024, compared to 6.4 percent in October 2024 and 22.9 percent in November 2023. On an MoM basis, it rose by 0.6 percent in November 2024, compared to a 0.7 percent increase in October 2024 and a 0.1 percent rise in November 2023.
• Rural Trimmed Inflation: Increased to 7.8 percent YoY in November 2024, compared to 7.2 percent in October 2024 and 27.9 percent in November 2023. On an MoM basis, it rose by 0.5 percent in November 2024, compared to a 1.0 percent increase in October 2024 and a 0.5 percent rise in November 2023.