Pakistan posted GDP growth of 0.92 percent in the first quarter of fiscal year 2024-25 (1QFY25), according to the latest data by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.
Agriculture posted growth of 1.15 percent and services 1.43 percent. Meanwhile, the industry contracted by 1.03 percent.
On the basis of the latest figures of the national accounts aggregates for FY 2023-24, the overall size of the economy stands at Rs. 105.6 trillion i.e. US$ 373.3 billion. Further, per capita income in Rupees is 472,263/- i.e. US$ 1,669. However, the series of per capita income from 2016-17 onwards will be revised after the receipt of backward and forward projections of population from the sources on the basis of the 2023 Population Census.
Despite improvement in important crops from 17.02 percent to 17.12 percent, the updated growth in agriculture has slightly moved down to 6.18 percent from 6.36 percent, mainly due to a downward revision in Forestry from 3.05 percent to -0.89 percent, mainly due to lower timber production. The rate of contraction in industry moved up from 1.15 percent to 1.65 percent.
During Q1, crops contracted by 5.93 percent. The contraction of 11.19 percent in important crops is due to a reduction in the production of cotton (-29.6 percent), maize (-15.6 percent), rice (-1.2 percent), and sugarcane (-2.2 percent). The wheat crop has no impact in Q1 as it is neither sown nor harvested during this quarter. Other crops have grown by 2.08 percent compared to -2.08 percent in Q1 last year due to a decline in inputs, e.g., fertilizer, and pesticides.
Livestock has increased by 4.89 percent as compared to 4.56 percent in Q1 last year because of an increase in livestock products and a decrease in inputs (dry fodder). Forestry and Fishing industries have witnessed modest growth of 0.78 percent and 0.82 percent respectively.
The mining and quarrying industry witnessed a major change from 3.47 percent to -4.16 percent due to a decline in production of coal (-5.21 percent) and limestone (-25.8 percent) in KP and Balochistan provinces. Improvement in transport (from 1.91 percent to 2.12 percent), information and communication (from 0.30 percent to 3.45 percent), education (from 8.55 percent to 9.05 percent), and health (from 5.55 percent to 5.99 percent) improved services from 2.15 percent to 2.35 percent.
The rate of contraction in industry has slowed down from 4.43 percent in 2023-24Q1 to 1.03 percent in 2024-25Q1.
The mining and quarrying industry has contracted by 6.49 percent due to low quarterly production of mining products e.g. coal (-12.4 percent), gas (-6.7 percent), and crude oil (-19.8 percent) provided by the sources.
While, the LSM, driven by QIM, has declined by 0.82 percent, the electricity, gas, and water supply industry has posted a modest growth of 0.58 percent.
The construction industry, estimated on the basis of production of construction inputs, has declined by 14.91 percent mainly due to a reduction in the production of cement (-16.12 percent) like key input.
Services grew by 1.43 percent compared to 2.16 percent in Q1 last year due to positive contributions in wholesale and retail trade (0.51 percent), accommodation and food services (4.58 percent), information and communication (5.09 percent), real estate activities (4.22 percent), education (2.03 percent), human health and social work activities (5.60 percent), and other private services (3.30 percent).
However, transportation & storage and public administration & social security industries have contracted by 0.07 percent and 4.49 percent respectively.
The FY24 GDP growth is revised down to 2.5 percent from earlier 2.52 percent.
