Pakistan’s economy expanded by 3.89 percent during the second quarter of fiscal year 2025-26, supported primarily by strong industrial activity and steady growth in the services sector, according to the latest GDP estimates reviewed by the National Accounts Committee.

The committee also revised down the first-quarter growth figure to 3.63 percent from an earlier estimate of 3.71 percent, bringing average economic growth for the first half of the fiscal year to 3.76 percent. The revised figures suggest that economic activity remains broadly aligned with the country’s annual growth expectations despite sectoral variations.

Agriculture recorded modest growth of 1.76 percent in the second quarter, supported mainly by livestock expansion as well as improvements in forestry and fishing. However, a contraction in crop production continued to weigh on overall agricultural performance, leaving first-half agriculture growth at around 2.2 percent, below the government’s full-year target.

Industrial activity remained the main driver of economic expansion, posting 7.4 percent growth in the second quarter compared to minimal growth a year earlier. The improvement was largely attributed to a rebound in large-scale manufacturing, particularly in automobiles, transport equipment, petroleum products, utilities, and construction-related activity. Mining and quarrying, however, contracted due to declines in gas output and certain mineral production segments. Overall industrial growth for the first half averaged 8.1 percent, reflecting recovery from last year’s low base.

The services sector grew by 3.69 percent during the quarter, led by public administration and social services, indicating gradual normalization of domestic economic activity. Services growth averaged 3.1 percent in the first half, slightly higher than the previous year’s performance.

Despite uneven sectoral contributions, policymakers have maintained the country’s overall GDP growth outlook for FY2025-26 within the range of 3.5 to 4.0 percent. Economists caution that sustaining momentum in the coming quarters will depend on agricultural recovery, continued industrial output, and stable macroeconomic conditions.