State Bank of Pakistan Governor Jameel Ahmad announced on Monday that workers’ remittances reached an unprecedented $4.1 billion in March 2025, prompting the central bank to revise its annual projection upward. Speaking at the Pakistan Stock Exchange during the launch of financial literacy week, Ahmad said the SBP now expects remittances to total $38 billion for fiscal year 2025, up from the previous estimate of $36 billion.

The robust inflow of remittances has bolstered Ahmad’s confidence that Pakistan’s current account will maintain a surplus throughout the fiscal year. “This represents the strongest performance on the external account in two decades, with a substantial surplus expected,” the governor stated.

In addition to the remittance forecast, Ahmad revised the projection for foreign exchange reserves held by the SBP to $14 billion by the end of June 2025, an increase from the earlier estimate of $13 billion. This optimistic outlook comes despite a recent $2 billion decline in foreign exchange reserves over the past couple of months due to debt repayments, bringing the current level to $10.6 billion.

The central bank chief anticipates Pakistan will secure between $4-5 billion from external resources, including global financial institutions, by the end of June, helping to strengthen the reserves position.

Ahmad also addressed concerns about economic activity, noting that imports have risen to $5.7 billion monthly. “Those questioning whether import restrictions exist or if economic activity is stagnating should examine the data,” he remarked.

For the current fiscal year, the SBP governor projects economic growth at 3%. He added that growth could have reached 4.2% had agricultural output maintained the previous year’s robust level of 8%.

On the inflation front, Ahmad cautioned that price increases would begin to accelerate from the current month, following March’s six-decade low inflation reading of 0.7%.