The government is considering a mix of rolling load-shedding, mandatory conservation measures and higher electricity tariffs to manage peak summer demand amid expected fuel shortages linked to tensions in the Middle East.
Authorities are working on contingency plans as imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) — which account for more than one-fifth of the country’s electricity generation — are expected to fall to almost zero from next month, even if the conflict involving Iran subsides immediately. Availability of imported and domestic coal, which together contribute close to 30 per cent of the national power mix, is also projected to remain constrained.
Officials said the government would increasingly rely on furnace oil to meet peak demand despite its significantly higher cost. In February, the fuel cost of power generation using imported LNG and coal stood at around Rs20 and Rs13.5 per unit, respectively, compared with about Rs35 per unit for furnace oil-based generation. They added that furnace oil prices had surged further following disruptions in regional supply routes and attacks on refineries in the Middle East.
About 5,000 megawatts of capacity from four LNG-based power plants — among the most efficient in the system — may remain underutilised, which could push fuel cost adjustments up by an estimated Rs10 to Rs12 per unit. Officials said such increases would be difficult to pass on fully to consumers, particularly export-oriented industries.
High-speed diesel, another alternative fuel, is unlikely to be used for power generation because of its high cost — now estimated to exceed Rs80 per unit — and strong demand in the transport and agriculture sectors during the harvesting season.
Pakistan’s summer peak electricity demand typically reaches between 27,000 and 28,000 megawatts, compared to current peak usage of less than 14,000MW. Officials said increasing reliance on rooftop solar systems had helped reduce grid demand during daytime hours, although pressure was expected to intensify during evening peak periods.
They said furnace oil-based plants could be operated selectively during peak hours because of their ability to ramp up generation quickly. However, the government is preparing for average daily load-shedding of two to three hours, depending on fuel availability, along with stricter conservation measures and higher charges through the existing fuel cost adjustment mechanism.
Gas availability for power generation is also expected to decline sharply. Supplies are likely to drop to about 80 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) from April, compared with roughly 150mmcfd in March. Authorities are considering suspending gas supply to the CNG sector and diverting part of the fertiliser sector’s allocation to the power sector to manage shortages.
Separately, disputes between Pakistan Railways and two major coal-fired power plants — Sahiwal and Jamshoro — are threatening an additional 1,500 to 1,800MW of generation capacity. Officials warned that coal stocks at the two plants were sufficient for only three to seven days and could result in another 2.5 to three hours of load-shedding if supplies were disrupted.
Together, the two plants currently generate about 1,500 to 2,000MW and are considered critical for grid stability, particularly the Sahiwal plant due to its proximity to major load centres.
Officials said coal loading from the Sahiwal plant had been affected and wagons were not being made available to the Jamshoro plant. While Jamshoro has secured regulatory approval to transport coal through road-based logistics, Sahiwal is still in the tendering phase for trucking arrangements — a move expected to increase generation costs and ultimately consumer tariffs.
The matter has been taken up with the power minister and may require intervention from the railways ministry or the Prime Minister’s Office as authorities attempt to secure fuel supplies ahead of peak summer demand.
