Production at Pakistan’s Reko Diq copper-gold project could be pushed back by two years to 2030, as investors wait for the security situation in Balochistan to improve and tensions in the Middle East to ease, Dawn reported.
The conflict in neighbouring Iran, combined with persistent security challenges in Balochistan, has prompted investors to revisit the project’s original 2028 timeline. Canadian mining company Barrick Mining is expected to resume full-scale development by mid-2027 after completing an internal review, though the company has yet to make an official announcement.
Despite the slowdown, project management has retained all 700 permanent employees and around 2,000 contractual workers at the site, while allowing some third-party service contracts to expire.
Barrick review keeps timeline uncertain
Barrick Mining and senior federal and Balochistan government officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment. However, company officials expressed optimism that the multibillion-dollar project remains viable and that daily operations continue.
“Research, administrative work, and community development projects are progressing normally,” a company employee said on condition of anonymity, dismissing speculation about the project’s future as baseless.
Another official said nearly $1 billion has already been invested in the venture, adding that the project remains technically viable and too significant for any shareholder to abandon. External factors could delay development, the official said, but the stakes remain high for both the mining company and the government.
Barrick Chairman John L. Thornton is expected to visit Pakistan later this month to attend the Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum 2026 in Islamabad.
Experts divided on cost of further delays
Industry experts remain divided over the financial impact of a potential delay. A private-sector source involved in another Balochistan mining venture warned that costs could rise by $8 billion to $10 billion even if work resumes within a year, arguing that a further deterioration in security or delays exceeding two years could make the project prohibitively expensive.
The source also advocated for a consortium of local companies to acquire a minority stake in the project.
An industry insider with business ties to Reko Diq Mining Company (RDMC), however, dismissed the $10 billion cost escalation estimate as “bordering on absurdity.” The insider estimated that delays could increase costs by around 10 percent, or approximately $450 million to $900 million, and said sentiment surrounding the project had improved in recent weeks.
The insider also expressed concern that the operator reportedly plans to process only 30 to 35 percent of the copper-gold output in Pakistan, potentially sending the remainder to its Australian facility instead of maximizing domestic value addition.
Barrick extends project review
Barrick initiated a formal review of Reko Diq in February 2026, announcing a slowdown in development and extending its assessment period through early 2027.
Speaking at the Mining Forum Americas last month, Barrick’s chief executive did not provide a revised construction timeline, saying the company needed security improvements before committing to a full construction schedule.
Barrick Mining holds a 50 percent stake in the project. The remaining half is split equally between the Balochistan provincial government and three Pakistani state-owned entities: Pakistan Petroleum Limited, Oil and Gas Development Company, and Government Holdings Private Limited.
Project costs rise to $9.1 billion
Reko Diq is one of Pakistan’s most ambitious infrastructure projects, with its estimated Phase 1 investment rising from $4 billion to $5.6 billion. Phase 2 is projected to require another $3.5 billion, taking total capital expenditure to around $9.1 billion, compared with earlier estimates of approximately $7 billion.
Designed as a conventional open-pit mining and processing operation, the project will produce high-grade copper-gold concentrate. Initial capacity is set at 45 million tonnes of ore annually, which is expected to double to 90 million tonnes following Phase 2.
The mine was initially planned for a 40-year operational life, but an updated feasibility study revised the estimate to 37 years to account for higher throughput. Ongoing exploration and resource development could potentially extend its lifespan to as much as 80 years.
Beyond export earnings and government revenue, Reko Diq is expected to generate 7,500 jobs during peak construction and support around 4,000 permanent positions once operational. Based on long-term commodity price assumptions, projected free cash flow over 37 years is estimated at $74 billion.
