Pakistan’s federal budgets have consistently fallen short of their own revenue and expenditure projections over the past five fiscal years, highlighting persistent weaknesses in fiscal planning, according to a report by the Karachi School of Business and Leadership (KSBL).

The report, covering FY21 to FY25, found that actual revenue collections differed from original budget estimates by an average of 18.2 percent, while government spending deviated by 23.9 percent during the same period.

Even after budget revisions during the fiscal year, significant gaps remained. Final revenue outcomes varied from revised estimates by an average of 11.2 percent, while expenditure figures differed by 10.4 percent.

KSBL noted that original budget estimates are the most important measure of fiscal credibility because they reflect the government’s initial commitments to citizens, businesses and investors.

Using a deviation-based assessment framework, the scorecard showed that a large share of budget categories ranked in the weakest performance tier, with revenue forecasting emerging as a particularly problematic area.

The report said the repeated mismatch between budget projections and actual outcomes has weakened the budget’s effectiveness as a fiscal roadmap and raised concerns about the credibility of public financial planning in Pakistan.