Pakistan is bracing for a potential hydropower shortfall this summer as water levels in key reservoirs continue to decline due to insufficient rainfall and worsening water conditions. The situation poses a significant challenge for the country’s energy sector, with the government potentially forced to rely on expensive imported Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to meet electricity demand during the peak summer months.

According to a report by the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) dated February 21, water levels at major reservoirs are critically low. Tarbela Dam is currently at 1,431.56 feet, Mangla Dam at 1,106 feet, and Chashma Barrage at just 639.1 feet. These levels are far below the required thresholds for optimal hydropower generation.

The decline in hydropower production has already impacted electricity generation. Data shows a 4.4 percent drop in power output for January 2025 compared to earlier projections. This shortfall could exacerbate the country’s energy challenges in the coming months.

In a related development, the Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA) has proposed a reduction of Rs. 2.0 per unit in electricity bills due to lower fuel costs in January. If approved, this could provide consumers with collective relief amounting to Rs. 15.65 billion. The Power Division has recommended extending this reduction to domestic users consuming up to 300 units and the agricultural sector. The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) is currently reviewing the proposal and has reserved its decision.