The federal government has forecasted that inflation will remain within the range of 5.8% to 6.8% in November 2024.
According to the Economic Update and Outlook for November 2024, released by the Ministry of Finance, Pakistan’s economy is observing a sustained recovery in the ongoing fiscal year.
Inflation is expected to remain within the range of 5.8% to 6.8% in November, further receding to 5.6% to 6.5% by December 2024.
The report claims that the first four months have shown better-than-expected improvement, marked by receding inflation, a significant increase in remittances and IT exports, sustained external and fiscal sectors, and a downward trend in interest rates.
On the agriculture front, wheat crop sowing is in progress to achieve the targeted area and production. The government facilities are well intact regarding the timely provision of key inputs to farmers at reasonable prices. Meanwhile, LSM indicators highlight a sector striving to recover as yearly growth remains negative, while monthly performance shows signs of resilience with gradual production increases in key sectors such as textiles and automobiles.
The current account turned into a surplus during July to October 2025, bolstering external sector sustainability.
The report states that total expenditure grew slightly by 1.8 percent to PKR 2,483 billion (from PKR 2,438 billion last year). Meanwhile, markup expenditure declined by 5.3 percent owing to the gradual decline in the policy rate. As a result, the fiscal balance posted a surplus of PKR 1,896 billion (1.5% of GDP) compared to a deficit of PKR 981 billion (0.9% of GDP), while the primary balance (surplus) reached PKR 3,202 billion (2.6% of GDP) compared to PKR 400 billion (0.4% of GDP) in the same period last year.
The report states that Pakistan has been actively participating in securing commitments for climate financing and mitigation measures. During COP29, held in Baku this month, Pakistan unveiled two policies: the National Climate Finance Strategy and the National Carbon Market Policy. These policies aim not only to mobilize domestic and international resources to support climate adaptation and mitigation projects but also to accelerate clean technology deployment and attract investment in sectors with significant emissions reduction potential.
For the outlook, it is anticipated that exports, imports, and workers’ remittances will continue to observe their increasing trends. Exports are expected to remain within the range of $2.5 to $3 billion, imports $4.5 to $4.9 billion, and workers’ remittances $2.8 to $3.3 billion in November 2024.
