Cryptocurrency prices surged late Tuesday, with Bitcoin reaching a new record high of nearly $75,000 as vote totals for the U.S. presidential election were tallied. Analysts suggest that Bitcoin’s price will continue to rally regardless of the election outcome, though some short-term volatility is expected.
Joel Kruger, a market strategist at LMAX Group, noted strong support for crypto assets in 2024, anticipating a crypto-friendly U.S. administration, regardless of the winner. “Trump has been decidedly more crypto-friendly, which has prompted the Harris campaign to adopt its own crypto-friendly policies,” Kruger wrote to IBD. He emphasized that while election-related uncertainty has affected global markets, the long-term impact on cryptocurrencies is likely minimal.
Kruger and LMAX forecast a “stellar” fourth-quarter performance for Bitcoin, following a strong start to the year, with $100,000 as the next major milestone. Meanwhile, Bernstein predicts Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by 2025, driven by a lack of U.S. fiscal discipline, record debt levels, and increased demand for hard assets. The success of spot Bitcoin ETFs has further accelerated this trend.
Bernstein analysts suggest that the crypto markets have not yet priced in a victory for either candidate. They project Bitcoin could reach $80,000 to $90,000 by Inauguration Day on January 20 if Trump wins, while a Harris victory might cause a temporary drop to $50,000 before recovery.
Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, believes Bitcoin will rally strongly once a clear winner emerges, as it did four years ago. However, he notes that Ethereum, Solana, and other alternative cryptocurrencies may require a Trump victory to outperform.
Historically, U.S. elections have been catalysts for Bitcoin price surges, though returns have diminished over time. James Van Straten, a senior analyst at CoinDesk, highlighted that Bitcoin’s price increased by about 12,000% between November 2012 and November 2013, 3,600% following the 2016 election, and 478% in the year after the 2020 election. Extending these trends suggests a post-election rally of about 47.8%, potentially bringing Bitcoin to around $103,500 in the fourth quarter of 2025.
On Tuesday night, Bitcoin spiked to a new record of $74,977, according to CoinDesk, marking a 9% increase over the past 24 hours and surpassing its previous all-time high of $73,798 from March 14. Coin Metrics recorded the high at $75,000. So far this year, Bitcoin has rallied 77%.
Ethereum also saw gains, trading near $2,600 on Tuesday night, up more than 7% for the day. Despite this, Ethereum remains below its October 20 peak of $2,750, having climbed about 13% in 2024 after reaching a 52-week high of $4,090 in March.
